WMS: 10% Growth Forecast for October Game Sales
Wedbush Morgan Securities
has issued its latest NPD preview report, forecasting that U.S. console
software sales for October rose 10 percent year-over-year to $401
million.
Contributors for the month include Vivendi's Scarface: The World is Yours (PS2, Xbox, PSP, PC), Midway's Mortal Kombat: Armageddon (PS2, Xbox), and Ubisoft's Splinter Cell Double Agent (360, PS2, Xbox, GC, PC) as well as continued strong sales of LucasArts' Lego Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy and Nintendo's Pokemon Mystery Dungeon. WMS expects 11 titles sold over 100,000 units for October (up from eight last October).
Although 10 percent growth is solid, the numbers may be limited because
of the NPD's calendar. Analyst Michael Pachter explained: "We note that
due to the timing of the NPD retail calendar, three major October
releases (Take-Two's GTA: Vice City Stories (PSP), Square Enix's Final Fantasy XII (PS2), and Electronic Arts' Need for Speed Carbon
(360, PS2, Xbox, PC, PSP, GBA, DS, GC)) will fall outside the NPD
October reporting month (October 1 - October 28). We believe that this
will limit growth this month, but should drive significant growth next
month."
Overall, the WMS estimate reflects a decline of $94 million in current
generation software sales (PS2, Xbox, GameCube, GBA), which is expected
to be offset by an increase of $130 million in next generation and
portable software sales (Xbox 360, PSP and DS). Total next-gen software
sales are anticipated to be $173 million with current-gen software
sales coming in at $228 million (a 29 percent decline).
WMS noted that growth over the last four months has averaged 20
percent. Looking ahead, Pachter stated, "Given recent sell-through
strength at retail, we believe that moderate declines in current
generation software sales will be more than offset by contribution from
next generation software sales. PS3 and Wii software sales are expected
to contribute $576 million to overall sales growth for the year, and
given that launch timing and quantities are getting clearer, we expect
overall 2006 U.S. sales to be at least 4% higher than 2005 levels."
James Brightman
November 3, 2006
Source:
GameDaily